So what’s ahead in 2010? These are some of the microtrends we’re seeing out there:

Recession Rage
We’re tired of the economic downturn and fed up with scrimping and saving. We’ve already cut back on buying takeaway food, eating out in cafes and restaurants, going to shows/events and buying our lunches regularly. Even lattes have become a luxury for more than a third of us. We have to save, but we’re only human — every so often, we’re just going to lash out and spend on something, regardless of whether it’s rational or not.

Surprising Resilience
Tough times still here in 2010? Okay then, if we’ve got to survive, we’ll get back into home cooking, meal planning and even budgeting — or at least microwaving our way through the economic turmoil.

Recovery Guilt
When the times are a lot more golden, we’re (probably) going to be more frugal, save more — and absolutely going to look for more bargains. We’re totally planning to live more within our means. But (don’t tell anyone) two-thirds of us admit there’s a possibility we just may go back to our old spending habits.

Prove It
Because consumer confidence worldwide last year took a hit, 2010 will see increased consumer demand for proof – most especially by way of reviews from other consumers. More and more, we’ll look for peer validation before we buy almost anything.

Caution: May Contain Puffery
Cynicism rules as consumers become increasingly skeptical about brands’ health and nutrition claims. “If it’s so healthy, why do they have to try so hard to convince us?”

Local Sourcing
Food retailers and eateries will trumpet the local and hyperlocal origins of many of their products, driven by a combination of marketing spin and a genuine desire to offer sustainable values.

The little global crisis that cried Wolf
We’ve now reached saturation point when it comes to media hyperventilation. Bird flu, Swine flu, global warming? Give us a break. Whenever the next pandemic or potential disaster comes along, we won’t be nearly so willing to dig into our pockets or follow official instructions.

The New Social-ism
2009 saw a tidal wave of new social networking converts, older and less connected than the earlier adopters. These new arrivals, after acclimatising themselves to platforms such as Facebook, will step up the pace in 2010 and start talking amongst themselves more and more, attracting more of their peers and leading to more and richer connections.

Luxury Lite
The good things in life will become a little more affordable in 2010. Conspicuous consumption is long gone, and even the affluent have fallen on harder times thanks to the GFC (“so un-PC to talk about the Global Financial Crisis, dahling”). We’ll make do with the palladium jewellery in 2010, as a sign of solidarity with the nation.

Authenticity Aura
Brand values have suddenly become important. When we consumers have less to spend, we want to invest in things that matter.

Not Quite Live
Television viewing will continue to deliver big ratings in 2010, but it won’t necessarily be live. TiVo and its clones are everywhere; and most of the popular shows on the networks can be watched online. Freed from the tyranny of the televisual timetable, consumers will watch more TV, but when and where they want.

Housebound
The relentless moving from house to house in search of capital gain has been halted by the collapse of the real estate boom. Suddenly homeowners are feeling trapped. Is this really where they want to live for an indefinite period? Is it time to become “house-proud” residents rather than transient tenants? Once financial stability resumes, expect a mix of renovation therapy and/or “must move at any price” impulse selling.

Attention Deficit Diaspora
Too many distractions, too little time. It’s not a new phenomenon, but the pace continues to accelerate. To engage the consumer, first catch his or her attention. Not getting any easier.

Family First
As materialism fades and consumers turn back to basics, family and friends become more important. The social networks are becoming increasing enablers, as are services such as Skype that reduce the cost and effort of keeping in touch. Now we can reach out and touch someone … in realtime.

Comfort
Consumers are looking for safety, simplicity, trust and indulgence, in response to the rising stress and uncertainty of the times. As a result, they tend to gravitate towards either (a) familiar brands from major suppliers; or (b) homegrown offerings with cosy “just-folks-like-us” appeal.

Getting “Off the Grid”
A not-insignificant segment of consumers are looking for ways to become more self sufficient even beyond their spending habits, including household-generated energy, water conservation and purification, self-directed healthcare and private vegetable gardens.

Wandering Eyes
In the best of times, we’re brand-loyal. In the worst of times, not so much. You may have won our hearts back in the day, but wallets speak louder than words right now. Dangle an enticing deal in front of us and we’re anyone’s. Will we be back? Maybe — depends on the appeal of the low-cost alternative.

He’s a Celebrity — Get Him Out of Here
Too many high-profile celebrity failings mean that consumers are tiring of the cult of celebrity. We still have a few heroes left, but those feet of clay are proving highly contagious amongst those we used to worship.

From Trade-Up to Trade-Off
Key food shopper behaviours in the new economy include advance preparation to determine best value, comparing unit prices, limiting purchases of premium products, and moving to store brands for a better price. Impulse purchases are giving way to planning ahead. Who’d have thought?

SO WHAT?
Why do these Micro Trends matter? Because they will collectively colour the spectacles through which consumers view your offerings in 2010. We recommend that you choose a few of the trends that seem most relevant to your product or service, and ask yourself and your colleagues what the implications are for your operation [we should mention that we're available to facilitate such a session on a project basis].
2010. In the movies (specifically, in the sequel to Arthur C Clarke’s “2001: A Space Odyssey”) it was known as “the year we make contact”. Turns out that it’s really “the year we make do”.

Related posts:

1. Getting revved up for 2010 Does this sound familiar? “Asked to outline the most significant...
2. 08 Trends For 2008 Doctor Robert Passikoff of Brand Keys offers up eight trends...

1. Analytics. Yeah, you heard me. I love analytics. But they’re gonna flop big-time in 2009 when everyone looks at everyone else and says “Holy crap. There’s no standards!” If a pageview on Google Analytics isn’t a pageview in Omniture, how the hell can anyone compare anything? Look for 2010 to be the Year of the Standards, and for someone to make millions of dollars talking about “Analytics 2.0″. At which point I’ll take out a contract on their worthless lives.
2. Vertical Search. I hate to kick that dead dog again, but it sucked in 2007, it sucked in 2008, and it’ll continue to suck wind in 2009, assuming anyone actually bothers to try and start another vertical search service.
3. Google Searchwiki. Actually, this service will do well. But spammers will abuse it. After 1 million people bury the #1 listing for “bailout” and it throws Google’s results on their ear, Google will implement new, undocumented policies that render Searchwiki utterly random.
4. Mobile Advertising. Someone else called this a trend, saying it’ll “flourish”. I don’t think so. Maybe among us snobby elites, but it takes more than 10,000 to make a serious advertising market.
5. RSS. The average web user will continue to refuse to even sniff curiously at RSS.
6. Internet Explorer 8. Everyone’s talking about it. I don’t care. Google Chrome and FireFox will continue to take big bites out of IE, which will be released on December 31 2009 so Microsoft can keep their promise.
7. Content marketing. 2008 was the Year of Crappy Content. Everyone who thought they could write slapped together an ebook (cough) and threw it on the web for sale. 2009 will be The Year We Go Broke, when we realize spending 4 days to write a 30 page booklet that earns a total of $300 a month isn’t worth it.
8. Social Media Conferences. In 2008 these things sprang up like zits on my forehead when I was 14. In 2009 layoffs, travel costs and the utter horror of air travel in the US will thin things out a bit.
9. Nofollow. The concept of pagerank sculpting will die a horrific death when Matt Cutts reveals it never existed, and he was just messing with us.
10. Twitter monetization. OK, I’m addicted to Twitter, I admit it. But how the hell will Twitter make money?
11. Yahoo!’s Downfall. Further indication the world has gone insane: The banking system has collapsed, the Big 3 are bankrupt, we lost 500,000 jobs in November 2008, and we’re bitching about Yahoo!’s “decline”. Why are we mourning the ‘failure’ of the #2 search company on the planet? A company that is profitable?!

Ian concludes sagely: “This is NOT investment advice! As always, I take no responsibility for the accuracy of these predictions. Note that my stock portfolio has lost at least 50% of its value in the last 12 months.”

Related posts:

1. Mobile Internet Usage Trends At the end of last month Openwave Systems published a...
2. 08 Trends For 2008 Doctor Robert Passikoff of Brand Keys offers up eight trends...
3. Alternative Trends For 2007 While marketers are constantly watching for alternative methods that can...

1) There will be an ongoing emphasis on “engagement” measures.
It’s been proven that real engagement is the outcome of any marketing or media initiative that substantively improves a brand’s equity. And “brand equity” is the degree to which a brand is seen to meet – or even exceed – consumers’ expectations for the category in which it competes. This is getting harder and harder to measure using models that had already lost their efficacy in 1985, and when you combine that with the power of today’s “bionic” consumers, born hot-wired into the Internet with an iPod in one hand and a TiVo controller in the other, engaging them will be the only way of guaranteeing loyalty and profitability.

2) More “brands” will become “Category Placeholders.”
As brands become more and more enamored with and enmeshed in “new” media like social networking and messages beamed into consumers’ living rooms from outer space, marketers need to ensure that their brands actually stand for something in the mind of the consumer. Media planning is necessary and sometimes even engaging, but those who rely on flavor-of-the-week tactics will find that they are forcing their consumers down pathways where only price will differentiate their well-known products from the competition, moving from brand status to Category Placeholder.

3) Companies will have to move from saying they’re “Green” to actually being “Emerald City Green.”
Playing in the environmental arena won’t be an option in 2008 and brands and holding companies will have to find ways of positioning their offerings in ways that meaningfully support a sustainable future. But as the number of companies trying to co-opt the environmental movement for their products and services grows, so too will the number of skeptical consumers. They’ve heard these promises before, and in the face of business-as-usual puffery, will demand authenticity – much in the same way proof was demanded in “The Wizard of Oz”: brands will have to be “morally, ethically, spiritually, physically, positively, absolutely, undeniably and reliably” green!

4) Media planning will become more touch point focused and personalized.
Planners will still classify touch points as “above-the-line,” “below-the-line,” and “new,” but planning will be based on three critical considerations: a) which touch point best reinforces brand values, b) where the brand + media equation yields real engagement, and c) where the plan is seamless, believable, personalized, and authentic.

5) Behavior will (finally) trump attitude.
More marketers will come to realize that “to know you is not necessarily to buy you” (or, for that matter, even like you). Loyalty and engagement metrics – particularly those configured to provide brand-to-media engagement measures—will be used to identify behavioral “hot buttons” that marketers can add to their toolboxes and their search efforts. Identifying behavioral consumer segments will then be used to synergistically reinforce brand values, brand and corporate positioning efforts, and media planning, making marketing more effective and efficient.

6) Consumer expectations will once more grow.
Brands are only barely keeping up now. Expectations remained stable for a short time, but only while consumers were catching their breadths and adopting –then devouring – the newest of the new technologies and innovations. Watch for smart marketers to identify and capitalize upon unmet expectations via values like “customization” and “personalization” via more (and more) high-tech capabilities to differentiate themselves from their competitors.

7) Personal health management will impact brand engagement and loyalty.
U.S. obesity is at an all-time high, with Americans among the fattest people on earth. This increase is primarily the result of consuming more calories, that behavior the direct result of technological innovations making it possible for food to be mass/fast prepared far from the point of consumption, and consumed with lower costs of preparation (even if you factor in marketing costs). With obesity (and, tangentially, awareness of obesity) rising at an epidemic rate, consumers will engage with brands that offer up healthy eating options. Watch for the “bionic” consumer to take control of their health, their weight, and their diets, weighing in with stronger loyalty bonds to products that offer “low fat,” “organic” and “low salt.”

Innovation and loyalty will matter more.
What is clear is that the ever-expanding universe of brands will require an informed action plan – one that makes sense to the people on the brand and marketing side of the equation, but one that also accurately identifies and capitalizes upon what people on the consumer side really feel, really want, and really believe.

Some of these trends are self-evident – but all of them are worth at least reviewing for your own marketing efforts.

Related posts:

1. Alternative Trends For 2007 While marketers are constantly watching for alternative methods that can...

1. Corporate honesty at all costs
Just as the new instant replay system at this year’s US Tennis Open kept the line judges in check, bloggers are bringing a new level of scrutiny to corporations and their marketing activities. Marketers must assume they live in glass houses and that consumers are armed with some large stones. Directness and honesty will not only help you win a lot of respect but also to recover from some bad shots. This is exactly what the folks at FaceBook discovered when their recent “upgrade” caused an uproar among their stalwarts who decried a loss of privacy. Bombarded with negative emails and postings, FaceBook management was quick to respond, first with a “don’t panic, we hear you” posting followed later by a “you’re right, we fixed it” note to all of their loyal users.

2. Transparent customer satisfaction
In a world of glass houses, the winners will be those companies that focus first and foremost on customer satisfaction. Expect more companies to redouble their efforts to improve customer satisfaction in 2007 at every point of contact. Call centre response times will be heavily scrutinised with the goal of reducing hold time to seconds instead of minutes. More companies will offer the “push zero” feature providing valuable customers relief from endlessly annoying option trees. Online customer support will also improve radically as more companies offer live support, along with improved web searches that allow customers to find what they need in just a click or two.

3. Net Promoter Scores
As customer satisfaction moves to the forefront of business strategies, expect more companies to use new metrics such as the Net Promoter Score (NPS) to assess progress and reward performance. Net Promoter Score was developed by former Bain consultant Fred Reichheld and measures the relative strength of brand promoters versus brand detractors. His research found that companies with high Net Promoter Scores consistently outperformed those with lower customer satisfaction ratings. The beauty of NPS is that it only requires asking one question: “On a scale of 0 to 10, how likely are you to recommend Brand X to a friend?” Companies such as GE have already made NPS ratings an integral part of their marketing plans, basing some 20% of compensation on NPS scores.

4. Blog monitors
In 2007 marketers will enhance their ability to defend against potentially ruinous blog attacks by dedicating resources to blog monitoring and blog response. The role of Blog Monitor will finally become a full time position in the communications department, as opposed to the occasional activity of a lone blog enthusiast. In addition to tracking blog noise, the Blog Monitor will actively engage other bloggers, correcting untruths and responding to issues as they arise. Corporate blogs will also be an important defensive weapon, assuming the authors are empowered to tell the truth (even if that means admitting a product’s shortcomings).

5. Niche market mining
Marketers will mine new niches with increasing accuracy and reward. Unilever created Small & Mighty detergent, packing a lot of cleaning punch into a small container. Targeting urban city dwellers that hate lugging heavy containers to the Laundromat, Small & Mighty has found a sweet spot and is quite literally cleaning up. Panasonic recently introduced a 103-inch Plasma TV that retails for US$75,000 (including, of course, custom installation). Clearly this is not a product for the masses but, in addition to providing bragging rights for producing the world’s largest plasma screen, no self-respecting billionaire will want to be left of the waiting list for this kind of jaw-dropper.

6. Eco-everything
Marketers will adopt eco-friendly green strategies across the board in 2007. Wal-Mart seems to be leading the way with its new “Embrace the Earth” mission that pushes sustainability on its vendors. Suddenly Wal-Mart is the world’s largest buyer of organic cotton, fair trade coffee, and energy-efficient light bulbs. Thousands of companies – from P&G to J&J to Black & Decker – will be forced to examine the greenness of their manufacturing and distribution processes. In addition to the environmental impact, the sales impact could be enormous.

7. More user-generated content
User-generated content (UGC) seemed to be all the rage in 2006. Everyone from Doritos to Mentos, MasterCard to Panasonic, Chevy to Oreos, offered user generated content programmes. And not without good reason. Consumers really responded. Mentos’s effort to ride the wave of consumer interest in watching Coke bottle geysers has created a corresponding explosion in sales (up 17% over the previous year). Looking ahead, however, marketers will need to raise the stakes if they hope to get consumers involved in such campaigns. One way will be to offer cash (or other incentives), not just for the winners as Doritos is doing, but for all UGC that other consumers end up watching. This “pay for play” approach is certainly gaining traction with the emergence of Current TV (which is paying for ads) and Revver.com (which is paying for content). Creative consumers will undoubtedly follow the money.

8. No more lines
For years, marketers have been dividing their communication budgets into “above the line” and “below the line” buckets. More recently, the division has focused on offline versus online activity. Hopefully, 2007 will be the year that marketers say “forget the lines” and look at their communications as one continuous conversation that seamlessly weaves across media turning prospects into customers and ultimately into brand advocates. To achieve this, marketers will need a new approach to strategy development and product management, creating briefs that embrace multi-channel ideation and managers that seek ideas rather than tactics. Unilever is a leader in this area and the results have been extraordinary, setting the standard with programmes like Dove’s Campaign for Real Beauty and the Axe Effect campaign.

9. Daring to be digital
2007 will be the proving ground for a number of emerging digital media weapons from mash-ups to RSS to virtual worlds. Google led the way with map-based mash-ups like the one it executed for the second Pirates of the Caribbean movie. Zillow.com created quite a stir with its mash-up of real estate sales data and mapping software, providing instant value estimates for just about every address in America. With RSS feeds just about everywhere, consumers can control how they access content. For example, on Expedia you can get personalised travel deals delivered wherever and whenever you want them. And virtual worlds such as SecondLife.com are progressing well, attracting hundreds of thousands of players – and forward-thinking marketers such American Apparel and Wells Fargo (both of whom set up virtual stores there for virtual commerce). While none of these new media approaches are likely to conquer the world by themselves, for the right companies each approach could play a key role in the year’s marketing mix.

10. Innovation triumphs
Innovation will propel marketers and agencies to new heights of success in 2007. On the client side, companies can’t afford to keep pushing the same products while competitors rush to market with less expensive copies. Apple continues to be the poster child for innovation, bringing out new iPods and Macintoshes that are faster, cheaper, smaller and cooler before competitors can even respond to previous iterations. Agencies also have an opportunity to use their considerable skills in both understanding consumers and culture, and producing remarkable ideas to help organisations change the way they operate. To innovate, companies of all kinds will need to extend their core competencies to new arenas. The opportunities for innovation abound, and the only impediment is the willingness to go for it.

Related posts:

1. 08 Trends For 2008 Doctor Robert Passikoff of Brand Keys offers up eight trends...
2. Internet Trends To Ignore In 2009 Ian Lurie of Conversation Marketing has put together a compelling...